- Our Round 1 CFP parlay features two live underdogs and a touchdown prop with huge value
- This three-team college football parlay pays out at juicy +700 odds for Saturday’s action
- Both Tennessee and Clemson bring elite defenses into their road matchups
The expanded College Football Playoff gives us three exciting first-round games this Saturday. I’ve found three picks that offer serious value, combining two underdogs getting points with a touchdown prop that looks even better after some recent transfer portal news.
Let’s look at the odds for our Round 1 CFP parlay for Saturday (Dec. 21):
College Football Parlay Odds – CFP Round 1
| Matchup | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| SMU @ Penn State | Drew Allar Anytime TD | +137 |
| Clemson @ Texas | Clemson +14 | -138 |
| Tennessee @ Ohio State | Tennessee +7 | -105 |
| TOTAL PARLAY ODDS | +700 |
Let’s break down why I love each leg of our playoff parlay.
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Parlay Pick: Drew Allar Anytime TD vs SMU
Drew Allar’s been on a roll lately, finding the end zone on the ground in three straight games. Here’s why I love his chances to score again: backup QB Beau Pribula just entered the transfer portal. That’s huge news for this prop.
Pribula scored four rushing touchdowns this season, while Allar had six. With Pribula gone, those goal-line carries have to go somewhere.
Allar and Pribula were both members of the 2022 recruiting class.
Installed two different offenses during their time together.
Teammates for three years – brothers forever.
— The Basic Blues Podcast (@BasicBluesPod) December 16, 2024
New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki knows he’s got a mobile quarterback who can handle the load. In playoff games, coaches typically lean more on quarterback runs near the goal line – they’re not saving anyone for next week anymore.
The math is simple near the goal line – when your QB runs the ball, you get an extra blocker. That’s a massive advantage that Penn State should use plenty on Saturday, especially with Pribula no longer in the picture.
Recent stats back this up too – SMU has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, allowing 59 rushing yards to the last two quarterbacks they’ve faced. Allar’s shown he can take advantage of these opportunities, averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season and putting up 54 rushing yards in his last game.
Parlay Pick: Clemson +14 at Texas
Dabo Swinney knows how to win playoff games, and his Tigers have the right formula to keep this close. QB Cade Klubnik’s been fantastic this year with 33 touchdowns and just five picks. Playing in his hometown of Austin adds some extra juice to this one.
The turnover battle could be huge here. Clemson ranks 10th nationally in protecting the ball, while Texas sits way down at 115th. The Tigers are +16 in turnover margin this season – that’s the kind of edge that keeps you within two touchdowns.
Clemson with the turnover and an explosive TD and already up on #SMU pic.twitter.com/0YzPJj3JhG
— The Triple Option (@3xOptionShow) December 8, 2024
Texas has also struggled as a big favorite, going just 2-4 against the spread when laying double digits to Power Four teams. Between Clemson’s ball security and their ability to pressure the quarterback, they’ve got multiple ways to cover this number.
The Tigers’ playoff experience can’t be overlooked either. Clemson made six straight appearances in the old four-team playoff from 2015-2020, going 6-4 in those games with two national titles. They know how to handle the bright lights, which matters when you’re getting two touchdowns on the road.
Parlay Pick: Tennessee +7 at Ohio State
The Vols are catching a wounded Ohio State team at the perfect time. The Buckeyes lost two key offensive linemen for the season – Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin are both done. Those injuries have crushed their run game. After averaging 208.7 rushing yards early on, they’ve managed just 96 yards per game in their last two.
Don’t buy into the “SEC team up north” storyline here. It’s already cold in Knoxville – the high on Saturday is 39 degrees. Plus, Tennessee fans travel well. With the NCAA handling ticket distribution for playoff games, expect plenty of orange in Columbus for this one. It’s just a five-hour drive.
It’s officially snowing in Columbus.
Under 24 hours until kickoff between Ohio State and Tennessee pic.twitter.com/DQ914uE6re
— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) December 21, 2024
Tennessee’s defense ranks second in the SEC and knows how to get after quarterbacks. Their defensive line ranks top-10 nationally in pressure rate. Against Ohio State’s banged-up offensive line, that’s a recipe for keeping this one tight.
The mental side matters too. Ohio State’s coming off a devastating 13-10 loss to Michigan, their fourth straight in the rivalry. Head coach Ryan Day’s been watching that tape on repeat all week. That’s not exactly the best headspace to be in when facing an aggressive SEC defense that’s ready to bring the pressure.
- College Football Playoff Round 1 Parlay: Allar TD , Clemson +14 & Tennessee +7 (+700)
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