• The Denver Broncos head south tonight to take on the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football
• An Alt Total Points Under of 39.5 leads off tonight’s TNF same-game parlay
• Below, see all three legs of a +1400 Broncos vs Saints SGP for Thursday Night Football

The NFL heads south for Thursday Night Football, as the Denver Broncos face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. Kickoff for tonight is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET. The Broncos and Saints are coming off tough losses in Week 6 against division rivals, in games where both teams were held scoreless across three quarters. There’s sure to be more scoring tonight, but hopefully not too much more, as tonight’s same-game parlay starts with an under bet.

Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Picks

After shopping tonight’s SGP at a few different sportsbooks, I found the best payout for tonight’s three-leg Broncos vs Saints same-game parlay to be at bet365, working out to a massive +1400.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets or a First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000!

Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBDXLM

CODE: SBDXLM

SIGNUP PROMO

GET UP TO
$1,000 BACK

OR BET $5 & GET $200!

CLAIM OFFER

 Odds as of October 16th at bet365 Sportsbook. Use the latest bet365 promo code before betting on Broncos vs Saints. 

I bounced back in last week’s 49ers vs Seahawks SGP, when all three of our legs hit. Staying conservative with the first-half under 24.5 worked out well when both San Francisco and Seattle were slow in getting started, only to explode for a combined 41 points in the second half. Brock Purdy hitting the over with his last pass was icing on the cake.

That’s why I’m riding the lightning with another Total Point Under and Passing Yard Over in my Week 7 Thursday Night Football SGP. All told, today’s NFL same-game parlay adds up to a huge +1400, where a $100 bet would net a profit of $1,400, but only if all three legs hit.

Facing a New Orleans team missing QB1 Derek Carr, Denver heads into TNF as a 2.5-point road favorite in the Broncos vs Saints odds.

Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 2-3, +13.33 units

Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Alt Total Points: Under 39.5

I won’t deny that this one feels a little odd, especially how the Saints have been a part of four games this season where the total hit 50 or more. That’s two-thirds of the games they’ve played so far, but I wouldn’t be making this move if there wasn’t a caveat.

Those four games featured some of the worst defenses in the league: the Panthers (29th), Cowboys (25th), Falcons (19th), and the Saints themselves (32nd) in last week’s 51-27 loss to Tampa Bay. And for what it’s worth, the Saints rank fourth in scoring, but 14th in total offense. Seems to me that’s a discrepancy worth scrutiny.

In New Orleans’ games against quality defenses, namely Philadelphia (10th) and Kansas City (4th), the totals ended on 27 and 39, respectively.

Comparatively, the Broncos’ ninth-overall defense has allowed passing and rushing totals similar to the Eagles. These comparisons are never apples to apples, but this one is pretty close.

So if the Saints defense is so bad, why am I still taking the under? Because the Broncos’ offense isn’t much better, rating 26th in passing and 18th in rushing. It’s the Saints’ pass defense (30th) that’s particularly vulnerable, but facing a less-than-effective passing offense should slow down the scoring quite a lot.

Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Bo Nix 200+ Passing Yards

I know, I just called the Broncos’ passing game “less-than-effective,” but that doesn’t mean Nix cannot hit 200+ yards, either.

Denver’s rookie QB has stayed under 200 yards in only two games this year: his first-ever NFL game in the first week of the season at Seattle (138 yards) and a sloppy, 10-9 “weather” game against the Jets (60 yards). Otherwise, he’s gone over 200 with yards to spare in his four other games.

Bo Nix is not a guy you give up on 6 games into his career.

He’s got the tools. Just has to be more consistent with them.

Some actual weapons wouldn’t hurt either pic.twitter.com/g0I9D7dPkE

— Fien (@zachefiene) October 14, 2024

Most notable of those performances is Nix’s most recent, the 216 yards he put up last week against the Chargers fourth-ranked pass defense. It’s a low total for a young QB against a quality pass defense, but he still broke 200 yards.

If we take general probability into consideration, NFL quarterbacks who have thrown 20 pass attempts or more in a game this season have also thrown for 200+ yards on 106 occasions, compared to the 65 QBs who stayed under 200. And of those 65 QBs, only one of them was facing the Saints.

I’m not saying Nix throwing for 200 yards is a given, but the likelihood that he does so is better than what sportsbooks are suggesting.

Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Javonte Williams Anytime TD Scorer

I’m leaning towards Javonte Williams for an anytime TD, mostly as a litmus test to see if the Saints did their homework after last week’s implosion.

No, Williams doesn’t score a lot; in fact, he alternates seasons between scoring in bunches or not at all. But when Williams scores, he does so in the red zone, as all twelve of his career TDs have come from within 20 yards.

And that’s where things get tricky, because the Saints currently rank third in defensive red zone scoring percentage. At 38.1%, only the Bears (37.5%) and Broncos (33.3%) are better at preventing red zone touchdowns. So is there value in taking Javonte Williams for a TD on Thursday? I believe there is.

That gaudy defensive RZ% covers their whole season, but when only looking at the last four games, the Saints’ percentage drops to 43.8%, all losses.

Strangely, that parallels Denver’s improvement in the red zone: their offensive RZ% is 50% for the entire the season, but is a massive 72.7% over their last four games.

New Orleans is getting worse in the red zone, while Denver is getting better. Who does that benefit? A guy who only scores in the red zone. That means Javonte Williams.

The post Best Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Picks for TNF Week 7 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.