• AFC West rivals the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers will be fighting to stay in the playoff picture on TNF
• Tonight’s TNF same-game parlay includes two O/U legs and a receiving milestone
• Below, see all three legs of a +450 Broncos vs Chargers SGP for Thursday Night Football

Though the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are both sitting on the happy side of the NFL playoff bracket, don’t expect either team to back down until a wild card spot is secured. That’s why I’m expecting a little more offense from both teams tonight than what we’re accustomed to. Kickoff for Broncos vs Chargers on Thursday Night Football is set for 8:15 pm ET.

Broncos vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay Picks

This week’s Broncos vs Chargers SGP adds up to +450, meaning a $100 bet will net a profit of $450, but only if all three legs hit.

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Odds as of December 18th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use the latest DraftKings bonus code before betting on Rams vs 49ers. Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 3-10, +11.83 units

Broncos vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Ladd McConkey 60+ Receiving Yards

At first, I was inclined to go after a Justin Herbert pass yards O/U, especially after seeing the announcement of his gaudy milestone. But knowing that the Chargers’ passing YPG has dropped significantly under Jim Harbaugh, by 50 yards from last year and 68 yards from 2022, I looked elsewhere for my SGP.

Of course, Herbert will still need to sling the ball Thursday night if the Chargers want to win, largely because of the Broncos’ elite rush defense. Denver is fifth in yards allowed on the ground, fourth in yards per attempt, third in rushing first downs, and second in rushing TDs. Talk about digging in your heels.

It’s not like the Denver pass defense is suffering, currently sitting sixteenth in the league in yards allowed, but that’s likely what Harbaugh will look to exploit on offense.

Now, Herbert’s milestone, surpassing 20,000+ passing yards within the first five seasons of his NFL career, is relevant because it means he can and will throw it when necessary. His 2024 stats are lower compared to his career numbers, but do you know who’s gotten better as the season has progressed?

Ladd McConkey, that’s who. Behold:

• First six games – 44.2 Receiving Yds/G, 4.0 Receptions/G, 11.04 Y/R;
• Last seven games – 86.9 Receiving Yds/G, 5.57 Receptions/G, 15.59 Y/R.

Those are some big increases across McConkey’s rookie season, to the point where he’s playing himself into the conversation in the Offensive ROY odds, let alone the WR1 spot for the Chargers. McConkey has earned the right to be Herbert’s primary target and will once again act the part tonight.

Broncos vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Bo Nix Rushing Yards Over 21.5

I made my decision pretty quickly for this leg once I dug into Bo Nix’s rushing stats this season, but not just because of what he did to the Chargers in Week 6.

For reference, Nix put 61 yards against LA on just 6 carries. That alone should have you taking the over, but Nix isn’t always charging hard up the field; in half his games this season he’s gone over 23 yards, but in the others he’s stayed under 10. So what gives?

Bo Nix went on a real adventure on this one. He slips out of a Bud Dupree DDT attempt, escapes another pressure, runs away from two defenders, and taunts 0 for not being able to catch him while down by 20 points pic.twitter.com/RrDvRw2SPz

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 14, 2024

Nix does his best rushing when he’s scrambling against teams that aren’t actually putting a lot of pressure on him. Take that Chargers game, where LA’s pressure percentage was just 14.6%, the fourth-lowest he’s faced. The four other lowest include:

• Week 15 vs IND – 5.4% Pressure%, 23 rushing yards;
• Week 7 @ NO – 6.1% Pressure%, 75 rushing yards;
• Week 8 vs CAR – 12.5% Pressure%, 4 rushing yards;
• Week 12 @ LV – 15.9% Pressure%, 5 rushing yards.

Those numbers against Carolina and Las Vegas are miniscule, but they don’t pressure anyone (32nd & 25th), while allowing high Pass Ratings (30th & 26th).

The Chargers are right there for Pressure% (26th), but not QBR (8th). Though they give up a lot of long completions, LA is great at preventing yards after the catch and creating turnovers.

Why does that matter? Nix has one of the lowest Y/A averages in the league; he isn’t looking to go deep. Instead, if Nix isn’t look for deep options, but also spots tight coverage in his progressions, it’s likely he’ll run more, even if he’s not pressured directly.

I mean, his average time in the pocket is 2.5 seconds, tied for fifth-longest in the league. Although he’s faced the third-most blitzes (137), he also has the seventh-lowest Pressure% (17.3%). Somehow, that’s made him the fourth-scrambliest (39) QB this season. It’s like he’s looking for a reason to run!

And for what it’s worth, the Chargers have given up 25+ rush yards to QBs on seven separate occasions this season. Again, one of those QBs was Nix and, given the state of Denver’s run game (spoiler: it’s not great), he’ll likely need to do it again tonight.

Broncos vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: First Half Over 20.5 Points

Admittedly, this leg of the parlay may be a little tricky. The Chargers and Broncos are Nos. 1 and 2 in the AFC for fewest points allowed and are averaging exactly 21.0 first half points in their last three games.

That may be why Thursday’s first half O/U is a little too on the nose, but I don’t think it will matter now that the Chargers can finally benefit for some home cookin’.

Los Angeles has averaged just 8.7 points in their last three games, largely because of two tough road games in Kansas City and Atlanta, where nobody was playing particularly well.

In comparison, the Chargers put 17 points on the board at home against the Buccaneers last week (just don’t ask about the 27 second half points they gave up). But in their last four home games, the Chargers have averaged 16.75 points in the first half, which will be more than enough if the Broncos can start strong. Recent history suggests that will be the case.

Denver has scored more than 20 points in the first half of seven of their last eight games; the lone exception was last week, when they combined with the Colts, a team that scores less frequently than the Chargers, to put up exactly twenty.

Further, the Broncos have gone over twenty points in the first half in five of seven road games this season.

Neither Denver nor Los Angeles are the highest scoring of teams in the NFL this season but, combined, they should do enough to go over 20.5 on Thursday.

The post Best Broncos vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay Picks for TNF Week 16 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.