• Atlanta plays its fourth game in three days on Tuesday when it visits San Diego in Game 1 of their best-of-three Wild Card series
• The Padres give Michael King his first postseason start while the Braves turn to Ian Anderson, who hasn’t pitched since 2022
• Below, see the Braves vs Padres predictions, expert picks, and best odds for Game 1 on Oct. 1st

It took until game 162 for the Atlanta Braves (89-73, 43-38 away) to clinch a postseason berth, but clinch it they did, and now the Braves hit the road for a best-of-three Wild Card series in San Diego against the Padres (93-69, 45-36 home). Game 1 between the Braves and Padres finishes off a slate of four MLB postseason games on Tuesday with first pitch scheduled for 5:38 pm PT/8:38 pm ET at Petco Park in San Diego.

Due to postponements caused by Hurricane Helene, the Braves didn’t complete their regular-season until Monday, when they split a doubleheader against the Mets. The other ten playoff teams all had Monday off.

With Atlanta playing its third game in two days, and San Diego well-rested, the Braves vs Padres Game 1 odds favor the home team by a sizable margin. With ace Chris Sale – the heavy favorite in the NL Cy Young odds – sidelined with a back issue, Atlanta is in desperation mode when it comes to a Game 1 starter. As of 2:00 pm ET, manager Brian Snitker still hadn’t announced his Game 1 starter, though it’s likely to be Bryce Elder. The other reasonable option would be Ian Anderson, who hasn’t pitched since 2022 due to Tommy John surgery.

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks

• Braves moneyline (+158) at Caesars Sportsbook
• King under 6.5 Ks (-110) at ESPN Bet

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Nothing against Michael King. The former Yankee has been excellent all season. But this is also his first taste of postseason action, and his his 173.2 IP is already way over is previous career high in innings. (104.2). King also has concerning home/road splits, posting a 2.65 ERA in away games but a 3.32 ERA at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Atlanta strikes out at a fairly high rate (24.0%, ninth-highest in the majors) but King fanned just three batters in his last outing and I expect manager Mike Shildt to have his starter on a fairly short leash in what amounts to a must-win game on Tuesday. Since the best-of-three Wild Card format was adopted in 2022, the team that wins Game 1 has won every series (8-0).

After a solid sophomore campaign (3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 174.2), Elder, a 25-year-old righty, spent the vast majority of 2024 in the minors. His limited big-league innings were a disaster (6.52 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in ten starts from April to August). His triple-A innings were more encouraging (3.73 ERA, 1.303 WHIP in 101.1 innings) but still not great considering the level of competition.

Making matters worse for the Braves, the current batch of Padres hitters has had its share of success against Elder. In 49 total ABs against the righty, the Padre lineup is hitting .286 with a .796 OPS. Both Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth have taken him yard.

But I still see value on Atlanta at +150 (40% implied win probability). The Braves have been relying heavily on their bullpen all season to good effect. Atlanta relievers finished with the third-best team ERA in all of baseball (3.32). While they have certainly logged more innings than the Friars’ pen in the last couple days (seven innings in yesterday’s doubleheader and another five innings on Sunday), there is a litany of quality arms back there who will be inserted at the first sign of trouble, whether it’s Elder or Ian Anderson on the hill.

Best Available Braves vs Padres Odds for Game 1

With all the questions surrounding Atlanta’s starter, the Braves vs Padres odds still have a decent range as of 2:15 pm ET. The best price on an Atlanta victory is +158 at Caesars, while BetMGM has the best odds on San Diego to win straight-up at -175.

When it comes to the game total, some books have the over/under at 7.0 while others have it at 7.5. The best odds on under 7.5 are currently -118 at FanDuel. The best odds on over 7.0 are -120 at both Bet365 and BetMGM.

Also see:

• Tigers vs Astros Prediction
• Royals vs Orioles Prediction
• Mets vs Brewers Prediction

The post Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for Game 1 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.