- The Seattle Mariners are -142 home favorites over the Houston Astros in their MLB game on Tuesday, September 25
- Both Seattle and Houston are battling for playoff spots as AL Wildcard teams
- Each team still has a mathematical chance of catching the Texas Rangers for the AL West flag
Each of the Seattle Mariners (84-71, 41-33 home) and Houston Astros (85-71, 46-29 away) could find themselves in the MLB postseason. There’s also a solid likelihood that one of these clubs will be going home when the regular season concludes on Oct. 1.
Both Seattle and Houston are in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. At the same time, neither is mathematically eliminated from catching the AL West-leading Texas Rangers and winning the division title.
It’s the hometown Mariners that oddsmakers are liking in the second game of this three-game set.
Astros vs Mariners Odds
| Team | Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | +1.5 (-175) | O 8 (-102) | +120 |
| Seattle Mariners | -1.5 (+145) | U 8 (-118) | -142 |
Seattle is the -142 favorite on Tuesday evening. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is set for 10:05pm ET. Seattle will win the season series from Houston for the first time since 2018.
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In the MLB public betting trends, the Astros are the people’s choice on the runline. Houston is drawing 67% of handle and 64% of bets in the spread splits. The Astros are 44-31 ATS on the road this season. Moneyline splits are divided. There’s 65% of handle backing Houston, while 59% of bets are going on Seattle. At odds of -142, Seattle is given a 58.68% win probability.
As far as the total of 8 runs, the public is going with the over. It’s garnering 55% of handle and 66% of bets. The Mariners are 37-32-5 on the total at home this season.
Javier Was Solid Until September
Right-hander Cristian Javier has proven to be a reliable hurler for the Astros over the past four seasons, going 29-16. However, he isn’t having a September to remember.
Cristian Javier strikes out Gunnar Henderson
91-mph 4-seam fastball
78-mph slider
81-mph slider pic.twitter.com/po88AOE8Lg— Tony Adams (@adams_at) September 20, 2023
Javier is 0-2 in four starts and has surrendered 10 earned runs in 20 innings of work for a 4.50 ERA. He’s 2-3 since a five-game win streak from May 10-June 3 that left Javier 7-1 on the season. He’s failed to get through the fifth inning in four of his past nine starts.
Javier has faced the Mariners once this season, working seven innings. He didn’t figure in the decision and finished with a 3.86 ERA. But he’s 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in eight career appearances against Seattle.
Javier vs Kirby
| 9-4 | Record | 11-10 |
| 4.64 | ERA | 3.58 |
| 4.56 | xERA | 3.94 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 2.61 | SO/W | 8.94 |
An AL all-star, Mariners right-hander George Kirby displays the best strikeouts/walks ratio (8.94) and fewest walks per nine innings (0.9) of any MLB pitcher this season. He’s issued just two free passes over his past 50 innings on the bump.
With a 6-3 verdict over the Oakland Athletics in his last start on Sept. 20, Kirby ended a 45-day winless skid. But his most recent win at T-Mobile Park was a 5-0 shutout of the Minnesota Twins on July 20.
George Kirby, 97mph Paint. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/IQUd5IZDOn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2023
Kirby got the decision in a 5-1 win at Houston on July 6. He allowed six hits and one earned run over 6.2 innings of work. He’s 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts facing the Astros.
Neither Team Is Charging to the Finish Line
For two teams with a real shot of making the playoffs, both Houston and Seattle are limping their way down the stretch. Houston is 3-7 over the past 10 games, while Seattle is 4-6. The Mariners are 7-13 through their past 20 games and the Astros are 8-12. Both clubs are 14-16 through their last 30 contests. Each of the Astros (Kansas City) and Mariners (Texas) arrived to this set having been swept in their previous series.
Astros vs Mariners Recent Results
| Date | Home-Away | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/20/2023 | HOU 6 SEA 7 | SEA | SEA | Over |
| 08/19/2023 | HOU 3 SEA 10 | SEA | SEA | Over |
| 08/18/2023 | HOU 0 SEA 2 | SEA | SEA | Under |
| 07/09/2023 | HOU 1 SEA 3 | SEA | SEA | Under |
| 07/08/2023 | HOU 3 SEA 2 | HOU | SEA | Under |
| 07/07/2023 | HOU 1 SEA 10 | SEA | SEA | Over |
| 07/06/2023 | HOU 1 SEA 5 | SEA | SEA | Under |
| 05/07/2023 | SEA 3 HOU 1 | SEA | SEA | Under |
| 05/06/2023 | SEA 7 HOU 5 | SEA | SEA | Over |
| 05/05/2023 | SEA 4 HOU 6 | HOU | HOU | Over |
The Astros, though, have won 46 road games, tied for the third-most in MLB this season. But just one of those away victories has come at Seattle.
Astros vs Mariners Pick: Seattle Mariners (-142)
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