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It’s lottery season. By early December 2023, a single race lottery for entry into the 2024 Western States 100 had 7,169 entrants. Considering “UltraRunning Magazine” recorded 11,254 100-mile finishes, it gives you some general sense of how popular certain trail races and ultramarathon races are (1). For thousands of iRunFar readers, this isn’t news. You have spent multiple consecutive years qualifying for and entering lotteries for various renowned events.

For this month’s column, we’re talking about race lotteries. We will look at how common they are as a tool for managing demand for popular races, and talk about strategies for navigating lotteries and the other race registration options.

Methodology

To quantify how common lotteries are as a system for managing race registrations, I created a sample dataset. To have clear criteria on which races were included in this dataset, I looked at races that met any of the following:

• They appeared in the “UltraRunning Magazine” list of the 50 largest races of 2023,
• They were part of the World Trail Majors,
• They were part of the Golden Trail World Series, or
• They were part of the UTMB World Series.

I checked the race website for each race in this dataset and noted whether the race granted runners entry on a “first come, first served” basis for registration until the event sold out, or operated a lottery. It created a dataset of 258 separate races.

This is a good time to remind you that this column focuses on just-for-fun analytics. Since the methodology for this article involved manually consulting dozens of race websites, I had to use a limited dataset and be able to explain why I included some races and excluded others.

North American ultramarathons are overrepresented in the dataset, because “UltraRunning Magazine,” which excels at compiling race data, focuses its race coverage on ultras held in North America. UTMB events are also overrepresented in the dataset, as they accounted for 73% of all races.

A final note: I classified races in my dataset generally as either/or. Where I could confirm the registration format, I classified over 90% of races as using either a “first come, first served” approach to managing registrations, or using a lottery. In practice, neither of those two categories is fully uniform. Races that use “first come, first served” registration processes may offer priority registration for certain types of runners. For example, all UTMB races in this category offer priority registration.

There are ways to bypass the lottery in races that use a lottery format, too. The Spartathlon puts its athletes through multiple rounds of a selection process before using a lottery to fill any remaining spots in the field. The Rachel Carson Trail Challenge also uses a selection process before filling the remainder of its field via lottery. Among events where a large majority of entrants are selected by lottery, some events allow you to enter the lottery with a group of friends with whom you might travel to the race, such as the Superior Fall Trail Race.

The Benefits and Pitfalls of Race Lotteries

Some trail and ultra races become victims of their own success — the number of runners who want to participate in the event greatly exceeds the number of available spots. This occurs most frequently where:

• The race is an iconic event with global appeal, and is on the bucket list of many trail runners and ultra runners, such as the Zegama Marathon,
• An iconic race has a relatively small field, such as the Hardrock 100, which reports approximately 2,800 lottery entrants per year, each hoping for one of the roughly 150 spots on the starting line, or
• The race is held in a region where trail running and ultrarunning are especially popular, such as the Marathon du Mont-Blanc, and the UTMB races in Chamonix, France.

Race lotteries are often maligned by the disappointed runners whose names aren’t drawn. Some runners would prefer the “first come, first served” registration process. Sometimes the “first come, first served” process is set up to prioritize race veterans, such as how runners with several past finishes at the Ice Age 50 Mile have the option to register before the general public.

Races that open registration a year before race day, such as Kullamannen by UTMB (the next edition will take place in November 2025, and registration is open as of November 2024), are popular with runners who are comfortable with planning their race season a year in advance.

But there are potential benefits to race lotteries, too. Race directors ultimately settle on whatever registration process is most feasible for them, and fits with their vision for their events. “First come, first served” registration can be hectic when the race field is filled within five hours of registration opening — this happened to the Diez Vista 50k in 2023.

Race directors can use the lottery process to support their vision for the event, whether that’s by prioritizing veteran participants, like at the Hardrock 100, or by promoting women’s participation, like at the High Lonesome 100 Mile.

How Common Are Race Lotteries?

In my dataset of 259 races, 6% used some form of lottery to fill their field. Even if we excluded all events operating under the UTMB banner, only 9% of races in the dataset funnel aspiring race entrants into a lottery system.

In November and December of each year, trail runners and ultrarunners spend a lot of time thinking about race lotteries, so we may exaggerate how widespread the use of this type of entry system is. It is, however, still possible to construct a race season out of multiple, memorable events, without needing to enter a lottery or register for the event the moment registration opens.

“UltraRunning Magazine” recorded 2,852 ultramarathons in North America in 2023. Each of those races had, on average, 48.82 finishers. The table below shows the average finishers per race in each format.

The proportion of races that have implemented lotteries is a small minority, though the number is increasing. As Zander Chase pointed out in his excellent article on the Western States 100’s lotteries and qualifications, the iconic 100-mile race first instituted a lottery registration system in 2000, and the number of lottery entrants has exploded since then. I have included two graphs below that illustrate this increase.

Total Number of Lottery Applicants

Total Number of Lottery Tickets

This trend is bearing out at other iconic races. In January 2024, UTMB issued a news item sharing some of its registration statistics and noted, “Demand is two to three times higher than our maximum capacity.”

Among the races that used lotteries in my sample dataset, most were ultramarathons, and at least 25% were 100 milers. On the other hand, at least two sub-ultra races in the 2024 Golden Trail World Series and two UTMB races of 20k or less have implemented race lotteries. Anecdotally, I am aware of more races of 100 miles or longer that use race lotteries than sub-ultra races. But regardless of your preferred race distance, you’ll face your share of events that sell out within a day or that use a lottery system.

Strategies for Navigating Race Lotteries

If you’re someone who dreams of entering a particular race and you share that dream with thousands of others, I see you. It can be demoralizing to spend multiple consecutive years qualifying for an event and then waiting to see if/when your name will be drawn. It can impact race seasons, vacation plans, finances, and even family planning (2).

While you, as an individual runner, cannot control which races are extremely popular and have lotteries in place, you can still control how you approach race lotteries. Your options include:

• Making a point to enjoy your qualifying races, so they don’t feel like a means to an end,
• Aiming for longevity in your sport, thus giving yourself a longer window of time to get into your bucket list event,
• Volunteering at your dream race, which typically improves your odds of getting into the race and allows you to enjoy the event’s atmosphere (3),
• Remembering that entering a race lottery is always optional.

That final point is important. As mentioned above, most trail races and ultramarathons still have relatively small fields, at least in North America. Along with fastest known time attempts and personal projects, it is still possible to have a fulfilling year of running without ever needing to enter a lottery or sign up for a race within 10 minutes of registration opening.

If you are entering some race lotteries or racing to the keyboard to register for a “first come, first served” event, good luck. If you aren’t, I hope this serves as your reminder there are other races that provide that sense of community and challenge.

Call for Comments

• Are you entering any race lotteries this year?
• When it comes to races that sell out as soon as (or before) general registration opens, do you prefer a lottery system or “first come, first served”?
• Race directors, how do you decide whether or not to use a lottery system to grant entry to your races?

Notes/References

1. I can’t make an apples-to-apples comparison between the number of Western States 100 entrants and the 11,254 finishes in 100-mile races that “UltraRunning Magazine” recorded in 2023. For example, “UltraRunning Magazine” tracks results in North America, whereas Western States lottery entrants may have run their qualifying races in other countries. Not all North American 100 milers are qualifiers for Western States. And since “UltraRunning Magazine” counts finishes as opposed to finishers, runners who finish multiple 100 milers in a season drive up this number. Still, it’s useful to quantify lottery entrants and 100-mile finishes, because it is a starting point for appreciating the magnitude of the appeal of Western States.
2. As more races adopt deferral and pregnancy policies, the impact on family planning is somewhat mitigated, which is important and wonderful. Years ago, I had a friend confide that she chose the last ultramarathon she ran before pregnancy and the first ultramarathon she ran post-pregnancy strategically, so she could maintain her odds of getting chosen in a competitive lottery that rewarded entrants for joining the lottery in consecutive years. There are still runners who dream to get into bucket list races before they navigate some major life changes, such as having a baby, because they want to tackle the events at a time in their lives when they have the time, resources, and attention to devote to their training and travel.
3. For example, at the time of writing, each aid station at the Western States 100 is rewarded with a race entry to bestow upon a volunteer or run club member. Volunteers at the Hardrock 100 enjoy better odds of having their names drawn in the lottery. Please consult the website or race director for your bucket list race for definitive information on volunteer benefits.

Analyzing Lottery Season: A Statistical Look at Lottery Entries for Popular Trail Races by Mallory Richard.