The post Action Network’s NFL Best Bets for Week 5 appeared first on SportsHandle.

As we enter Week 5 of the NFL season, expect underdogs to make some noise from the Midwest to the West Coast. The Ravens-Steelers rivalry has lately emerged as one of the more exciting, and an emerging theme is that the underdog in this rivalry isn’t really one, and has historically dominated, according to Phillip Kall. But the big underdog to look at this week is the Los Angeles Rams, playing at home against the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. With receiver Cooper Kupp back, the Rams could be the first to successfully exploit the Philadelphia defense.

Those are two of four offerings from our colleagues at Action Network.

Among the others, Action Network betting pros will give you a reason to bet on a running back poised for a breakout game and the over in a game already projected to be high scoring.

Every weekend throughout the NFL season, Sports Handle will bring you five “Best Bets” from Action Network‘s experts, including their research and arguments for why each pick is a good bet.

Giants vs. Dolphins

Pick: De’Von Achane Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on FOX

Cody Goggin: Miami’s running game has been unreal this season. It ranks first in the league in PFF run grade with a 92.8. They also lead the league with 0.071 EPA per run and rank second in rushing success rate.

Despite not seeing real game action until two weeks ago, RB De’Von Achane is already sixth in the NFL in rushing yards. On just 27 attempts he has 309 yards on the ground this year. His 11.4 yards per attempt is the top mark in the league by a wide margin.

Achane isn’t likely to sustain this rate, but it just goes to show how explosive of a player he is. With a matchup against a poor rush defense, and in a game that the Dolphins should be playing from ahead, I think both Dolphins backs can go off this weekend.

For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.

Ravens vs. Steelers

Pick: Steelers +4.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Phillip Kall: This rivalry has steadily become one of the more exciting matchups in the NFL.

Offensively, the rumored transition to a pass-heavy offense has not gone as expected for the Ravens. Baltimore is last in pass attempts and 26th in passing yards. Defensively, the Ravens have dealt with injuries to some of their best players — but they haven’t skipped a beat, currently ranked second in yards per drive and third in points per drive.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been the make-or-break factor in its wins. In the Steelers’ two victories, the defense forced seven turnovers. More impressively though, it’s 14th in the percentage of drives ending in an opposing score, according to Pro Football Reference. Keeping in mind that the Steelers are last in average possession time per drive, their defense has played pretty well despite being on the field for an outrageous amount of time.

Rather than try to decipher what is real and not, I will turn to the recent matchups in this rivalry. Action’s Week 5 Betting Primer details the history, but the bottom line is underdogs have dominated this matchup over the years. In games between Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the underdog is 22-5-3 against the spread.

For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.

Rams vs. Eagles

Pick: Rams +4.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX

Anthony Dabbundo: The Eagles will face a tricky test on Sunday against the Rams, who have outperformed expectations and are looking at a possible playoff berth down the line. The Rams managed to stay .500 in the four games without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who makes his return to the lineup from the injured reserve list.

The Rams and Eagles offenses are tied for eighth in series success rate, a metric that measures what percent the offense turns a 1st-and-10 into a new set of downs (or scores). Both offenses have performed about even this season. I’m not too worried about the Eagles offense in the medium-to-long term because of the talent and the dominant offensive line, but I have real questions about the quality of the defense against the pass.

Because of changes at linebacker, injuries in the secondary and the new scheme, the Eagles secondary is considerably more vulnerable. When you again consider the schedule of opponents, it’s a bit alarming. Last year, the Eagles nearly broke the NFL single-season sack record. This year, Philadelphia is second in run-stop win rate, and has been elite against the run, but the pass rush has taken a step back.

But the issue in on defense — the Eagles defense under Gannon struggled mightily to slow down good pocket passers.

For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.

Chiefs vs. Vikings

Pick: Over 52.5
Book: BetRivers
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS

John LanFranca: Looking at Chiefs vs. Vikings odds for NFL Week 5, one thing is clear: the potential for fireworks is paramount as this game has the highest total on the board.

The Vikings hold the edge over the Chiefs in yards per play gained this season. Both rank inside the top five on a per-play basis, with the Vikings again having the advantage in explosive plays. Notably, 7.9% of all Minnesota plays have gained 20+ yards this season, behind only the league-leading Dolphins.

Patrick Mahomes has played 44 regular-season games away from Arrowhead Stadium throughout his career. The over has cashed at a 63.6% rate in those away games. When Mahomes is outside of the division and on the road, the over is 18-10 (64.3%). Against the NFC, that rate increases to 72.7% (8-3).

For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.

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