The post Action Network’s Best NFL Bets For Week 7 appeared first on SportsHandle.
The Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos are not good football teams, at least not at this juncture of the season. So a bettor should take the under, right? Not necessarily.
That’s part of the Week 7 NFL assessment from our colleagues at Action Network. They’ve crunched the numbers and like the Ravens to cover over the league’s latest flavor of the month, while they’re not so keen on one of Baltimore’s division rivals. And while the Chargers’ record is nothing to write home about, that doesn’t mean they won’t keep things close against the defending Super Bowl champs.
Every weekend throughout the NFL season, Sports Handle will bring you “Best Bets” from Action Network‘s experts, including their research and arguments like those below for why each pick is a good bet.
Lions vs. Ravens
Pick: Ravens -3
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on FOX
John LanFranca: In one of the best games of the Sunday slate, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff will try to put to bed the narrative of his outdoor struggles. Goff has covered seven straight against teams with a winning record as the Lions continue to be the public’s betting darlings of the NFL.
The Ravens and Lions are fourth and seventh, respectively, in rush offense DVOA. However, the Lions have been in the lead 60% of the time when their offense is on the field — fourth highest in the league. Their spot as the fourth-best passing offense, according to DVOA, could be tested if they find themselves playing from behind.
And that could be the case, because the Ravens’ rush defense has been incredibly stout through six weeks. They have held 50.4% of runs to fewer than 4 yards on first down and fewer than three yards on all other downs. In total, their rush defense success rate sits at 70.4%, which is fourth in the NFL.
Lions running back David Montgomery (ribs) has been ruled out. At 224 pounds, he is a much more physical runner than rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. It won’t just be a hit to the running game either, as Montgomery is much better in pass protection as well.
The Ravens are one of the few teams equipped to put Goff and company behind the sticks. I will side with the defense that can get to the quarterback in obvious passing situations. I happen to also be betting on the quarterback who can make an extra play or two with his legs when the game is on the line.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Steelers vs. Rams
Pick: Rams -3
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
Cody Goggin: The Steelers offense has arguably been the worst in the league this year. They rank 32nd in success rate, 32nd in available yards gained, and 29th in EPA per play. While Kenny Pickett has been awful, his offensive line has not done him any favors. The Steelers’ OL has a PFF pass blocking grade of 34.3 this season, ahead of only the Giants.
The Steelers defense has been serviceable this year, but they’ve had less success than they typically do. Rather, they’ve relied on a few big plays to cash in these victories instead of suffocating the opposing offense for the duration of the game.
The Rams will be without their top two running backs, but in the past, they have shown the ability to simply swap in others without missing a beat. What really matters for the Rams is that Cooper Kupp is back. After making his return just two weeks ago, he has already racked up 15 catches for 266 yards and a touchdown.
Los Angeles’ offense has been much better than many expected, even without Kupp at the beginning of the year. L.A. ranks sixth in EPA per play, eighth in available yards gained, and 10th in success rate.
The Rams have been solid on the defensive side as well. They rank 11th in success rate and ninth in rushing success rate. However, they have consistently fallen victim to big plays, as they also rank 22nd in EPA per play allowed.
I’m honestly not sure why this line is still at Rams -3. I love the Rams and would take them at anything under 4.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Packers vs. Broncos
Pick: Over 45
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Blake Krass: Unfortunately for the Broncos, in the week in which they turned in their best defensive performance of the year, they also had their worst offensive performance. The Broncos accrued less than 200 yards of total offense and quarterback Russell Wilson posted less than 100 passing yards. Denver is 30th in overall DVOA, ahead of only the Giants and Panthers. That is due in large part to the Broncos being 32nd in defensive DVOA.
Packers QB Jordan Love is in the middle of the pack (17th) when it comes to EPA per play, but he is 32nd in CPOE (completion percentage over expected), with only Anthony Richardson worse among qualified quarterbacks. Love has made some great throws and some really bad ones, landing him in the middle in EPA per play.
Despite all of these somewhat negative figures, these offenses are perfectly average by DVOA. The Packers are 16th in offensive DVOA and the Broncos are just behind at 17th. More importantly, the two offenses match up perfectly with the opposing defense. The Packers have been better at throwing the ball than running, as they sit 11th in pass offense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Broncos have run the ball much better than they have thrown, as they sit at 11th in rush offense DVOA.
People will see two bad teams and instinctively think to bet the under, but these offenses are both superior to the opposing defense.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Pick: Chargers +5.5
Book: BetMGM
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Anthony Dabbundo: These two teams have played four times since Brandon Staley took over as Chargers head coach. The Chargers only have one win head-to-head, but they were either leading or tied in the fourth quarter of all four meetings. None of the games were decided by more than one score.
The results in the win/loss column this season haven’t been great because the Chargers have lost three coin-flip games to the Dolphins, Titans and Cowboys, but they haven’t lost a game by more than three points all season. Even dating back to last year, the Chargers only lost two games with a healthy Herbert by six or more points.
In his career, Justin Herbert is 10-1 against the spread when the Chargers an underdog of three or more points. Sometimes, narratives develop in the NFL that are based solely on small samples, but the Staley/Herbert Chargers have been notorious for playing up and down to the level of their competition. Since 2020, the Chiefs are just 14-27 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more points.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
The post Action Network’s Best NFL Bets For Week 7 appeared first on SportsHandle.
