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Gobble, gobble! We’re just one day away from turkey, pumpkin pie, and football as NFL Week 12 kicks off with a three-course Thanksgiving meal. The table is set at 12:30 p.m. ET, as the NFC North-leading Lions take on the Packers, and dessert will be served at 8:20 p.m. ET with the 49ers and Seahawks. Between all of that, we’ll head to Dallas as Micah Parsons hosts Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders.
With all three favorites laying at least a touchdown, the games may not be close but we’ll find ways to sweat them. Looking at an assortment of the top betting apps, the team from RotoGrinders has served an appetizer of picks to consider locking in before kickoff in hopes of making your Thanksgiving a profitable one.
5-point teaser (-110): DET -2.5, SF -2, FanDuel
The sides and totals all seem efficient for the Turkey Day slate, but I do like these two games for an NFL teaser.
The Lions are at home against the Packers, who are inferior to the Lions on both sides of the ball. The Packers are also dealing with a bunch of injuries on offense — all three of their running backs, two of their wide receivers, and two of their tight ends. Jared Goff has been great indoors throughout his career and the Lions have quite the one-two punch on the ground with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Niners are as healthy as they have been all season. With Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all on the field, good luck to any defense going up against San Francisco. Trent Williams’ return also bolsters the offensive line. I know this is a divisional game against a rival, but the Niners shouldn’t have an issue with the Seahawks. Much like Green Bay, Seattle is dealing with a lot of injuries on offense. Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, and Tyler Lockett are all questionable for this game.
All we need is the Lions and Niners to win by a field goal or more. Tease this one at FanDuel Sportsbook.
— Derek Farnsworth (a.k.a. Notorious)
Lamb o89.5 receiving yards (-115), BetMGM
Despite scoring last week, CeeDee Lamb didn’t exactly light up the box score — but he still received nine targets. This feels like a fantastic get-right spot against a Commanders defense that is in shambles. Heck, we just saw Tommy Devito crush them.
The Washington defense is bottom-10 in yielding YAC per reception and yards per target while giving up the second-highest aDOT in the NFL. This unit has been completely flat since the trade-deadline firesale.
Lamb ranks 11th in target share and is part of a Dallas offense that has been passing far higher than expectation since the team’s bye week.
This line is all the way up to 95.5 on betting sites like FanDuel, but you can shop around and get six extra yards at BetMGM. That’s the move.
Montgomery o5.5 receiving yards (-110), bet365
David Montgomery’s line sits at just 5.5 receiving yards at bet365 Sportsbook, despite him coming off of a game where he produced his season high with 22 receiving yards.
Montgomery has posted at least 7 receiving yards in all but two of his seven games this year, and he was limited returning from injury in one of those games. He has 19-plus receiving yards in four of his last five games and is averaging 12.6 per game this season. Let’s take advantage of a soft number here, as Montgomery will likely just need one or two catches to pay this off.
Pollard o59.5 rushing yards (-114), FanDuel
It has been a disappointing season for Tony Pollard, but it’s a great buy-low spot on Turkey Day.
He had a solid game averaging 5 YPC (and finally scoring a touchdown) against the Giants, and now he draws a terrible Commanders defense whose run stopping has gotten far worse after some trade deadline moves. They allowed Saquon Barkley to average 5.9 YPC last week, and Pollard’s backup, Rico Dowdle, has yet to practice so far on this short week, which should give Pollard a small boost in workload.
The post A Teaser For Turkey Day, And Other Thanksgiving NFL Picks appeared first on SportsHandle.
