Who’ll hold the seat at the end of the parliament?
Labour and the LDs have had a little battle going on in Mid Bedfordshire each trying to establish that they will be the main challenger if Nadine Dorries does indeed step aside and there’s a by-election to replace her. Labour is highlighting their second place at GE2019 when although they were a long way behind they were ahead of the LDs.
Davey’s party is undoubtedly the by-election king with a net gain of four seats this parliament, By contrast Labour has a net gain of just one seat. Statmer’s party gained both Wakefield and Selby but lost Hartlepool to the Tories in 2000.
Mid Bedfordshire is in the top quartile of seas when it comes to the proportion of the electorate who are graduates and undoubtedly that will help the LDs. What we do know is that they are able to throw a lot of resources into by-election fights when they are going full gas.
Nadine, of course, has yet to make good her June declaration that she was quitting as an MP with immediate effect.
My suggested market – who’ll be MP when the general election is called – seeks to cover the outcome of a by-election and whether indeed Dorries has carried out her resignation.
I think that is a very close call.
