The post A Look Back, A Look Ahead For FanDuel And DraftKings As The Sportsbook Wars Heat Up appeared first on SportsHandle.

Nigel Eccles, one of FanDuel’s co-founders, is not surprised to see his old company — he left in 2017 — sitting atop the sports betting app leaderboard along with their old daily fantasy sports (DFS) rival, DraftKings.

“I remember laughing at the time, when people would say Wynn and Caesars are going to dominate, and I was like … no,” he said. “What people don’t understand is online sports betting is a very, very different product than offline casino. Running an offline casino is massively complex, a huge undertaking. I know people who run casinos. It’s incredible. But it’s totally different.”

At least thus far, Eccles has been proven right.

In nearly every state where they both compete, DraftKings and FanDuel combine for over 70% of the market share, according to sports betting revenue and handle data compiled by Sports Handle.

And overall, according to data from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, the two companies account for 61% of all gross gaming revenue in the online space.

It’s certainly been a booming five years for the two companies.

But looking back, was Eccles alone in his assessment that FanDuel and DraftKings were practically preordained to be the market leaders?

And perhaps more importantly, what does the future hold for these two companies? Will they be able to maintain their stranglehold on the top spots? Will they be able to swat away those legacy companies like Caesars and BetMGM? Will they be able to withstand the pressure from newcomers Fanatics Sportsbook and ESPN BET?

A look back

Longtime gambling executive Richard Schuetz, for one, did not see FanDuel and DraftKings coming.

“I never saw DraftKings and FanDuel as being preordained,” he said. “I basically saw them on a curious course with which I was unfamiliar.”

The first point of unfamiliarity? The fact that these two companies spent money like drunken sailors. On leave. With days to live. And no living relatives.

“I was amazed by the cash burn,” Schuetz said. “I have never been involved with any operation that would incinerate money with such ease and confidence — understanding I worked for Mr. [Steve] Wynn, Mr. [Sheldon] Adelson, the Howard Hughes folks, to name a few, who were not intimidated by spending.”

Ryan Sigdahl, an analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group, also noted the money spent in an effort to gain market share.

“Spending billions cumulatively on advertising — scale matters,” Sigdahl said. “And they also made the biggest investments in innovation.”

But it went beyond money. The two companies also had a competitive advantage many didn’t realize from years of running top DFS sites: a player database.

“With the repeal of PASPA in 2018, the FanDuel and DraftKings existing database had a leg up on the existing brick and mortar because they had defined players in numerous states,” said Brendan Bussmann of B Global Advisors. “While many of these operators had sports betting customers, they did not have the big databases that FanDuel and DraftKings had.”

Chris Krafcik, the managing director of sports betting and emerging verticals at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, a gambling research and consulting firm, saw the same — and more.

“The two companies hit the ground running with strong brands, market-leading products, and a high-conviction customer base that was able to transfer money already on deposit for DFS into their OSB (online sportsbook) wallets.”

But Schuetz — at least at the time — wasn’t convinced the databases were the magic bullet.

“I did not attach too much to the DFS databases, for the legacy casino operators had massive databases of gamblers, and the marketing teams were pretty sophisticated,” he said.

So what pushed FanDuel and DraftKings to the top? 

“I also saw the traditional brick-and-mortar folks being left at the starting gate. I think this resulted because of the pandemic, and the disruption and resulting uncertainty of the pandemic to the casino model,” Schuetz said. “Also, the effort of so many legacy casino companies to remake their balance sheets with the growth of the REITs (real estate investment trusts) was certainly a distraction. Finally, the general arrogance of the legacy casino operators cannot be overlooked.”

And then there’s Eccles’ original point: Comparing what DraftKings and FanDuel were doing pre-PASPA repeal and what the legacy gambling companies were doing is like comparing apples and … apples that run non-digital hotels.

“You’re managing developers, you’re managing product development cycles, you’re figuring out online marketing, you’re doing a/b tests on customer acquisition funnels, and none of those apply to running an offline sportsbook,” Eccles said. “There’s almost no expertise of running a casino that applies to running an online sportsbook. I felt if sports betting were to happen, us and DraftKings would be in the prime position.”

Bussmann doubles down on the point.

“These companies are just built differently,” he said. “FanDuel and DraftKings were built for these types of opportunities, whether it be DFS, sports betting, or iGaming. While stalwarts in the industry like Caesars, MGM, and [ESPN BET operator] PENN are strong operators of brick-and-mortar facilities, they are focused on a host of operating efforts on both gaming and non-gaming. It’s sole focus versus added amenity.”

Tomorrow and beyond

While the American sports betting site landscape is already littered with the carcasses of failed, but big-name, entries (we hardly knew ye, FOX Bet), it hasn’t stopped newcomers from entering the fray. Both Fanatics and ESPN BET are looking to make a serious dent at the top of the charts.

And while both those sportsbooks — in addition to legacy stalwarts like Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, and others — will try to unseat the reigning duo, it won’t be easy.

“The mighty can always fall, but it is always contingent on the market conditions, investment, reinvestment, and innovation,” said Bussmann. “If someone comes along and creates a better experience than the dominant players or attracts a new or expands an existing customer base, you always have the opportunity to have a change in market leaders.”

Lloyd Danzig of Sharp Alpha Advisors — his venture capital fund concentrates on the sports and gaming industries — thinks the two will retain their top positions but can’t rest on their laurels.

“While their economies of scale, brand recognition, and retention rates suggest it will be difficult for challenger brands to unseat them, a perceived lack of loyalty among customers and tendency toward product commoditization over the long-term necessitates constant innovation and improvement,” he said. “Amy Howe and Jason Robins (FanDuel’s and DraftKings’ respective CEOs) certainly are not sitting still or assuming their market share leadership has calcified, mindful of the well-funded competitors with unique offerings entering the mix.”

Danzig also thinks the old guard isn’t quite out of the picture yet.

“There is also the potential for legacy stalwarts MGM and Caesars to eventually turn the ship and succeed in monetizing their land-based user bases online at scale, although success on this front has been scant thus far,” he said.

EKG’s Krafcik also thinks the two companies will remain in the driver’s seat moving forward, though he does expect the two to give up some ground.

“The competitive landscape is changing,” he said. “So as new brands like ESPN BET and Fanatics establish themselves, as BetMGM improves its product quality, and as Hard Rock benefits from its Florida OSB monopoly, for example, we expect FanDuel and DraftKings will cede some market share,” he said. “In the status quo, though, it is easier to imagine FanDuel and DraftKings giving up a combined 500-1500 basis points of market share than it is to imagine the two companies losing their grip on the market.”

And Eccles? Well, he still owns a “very small” stake in Flutter, FanDuel’s corporate parent, but he scoffs at the idea of anyone touching FanDuel and DraftKings.

He even (did not) put his money where his mouth is.

“Investors offered me huge sums of money after FanDuel to go and launch a sportsbook, and I was like, ‘The game’s over,’” Eccles said. “The first thing I’d do is give you your money back. Go and do something better with it. By that stage, FanDuel had invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its brand and its product. To try and launch this late in the game is a huge mistake.”

Eccles, much like many analysts in the space, doesn’t think the newest and biggest entries into the sports betting world — Fanatics and ESPN BET — are going to challenge the top dogs.

“I think they can get to [a little under 10 percent] market share,” he said. “And it’s going to cost them a ton of money to get there.”

Schuetz agrees — at least on the cash front.

“ESPN BET and Fanatics will be interesting to watch, albeit they may feel uncomfortable operating in the nosebleed section of marketing spend.”

Bussmann, however, leaves on a note of caution for the market leaders.

“You’ve got opportunities with ESPN BET and Fanatics to make an impact on the market because of the databases they have and the platforms available to them,” he said. “We are still early on in this game and there is plenty of clock left to see shifts in the market and not automatically assume it’s a lock for the long term.”

The post A Look Back, A Look Ahead For FanDuel And DraftKings As The Sportsbook Wars Heat Up appeared first on SportsHandle.