Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Despite a slight pullback in the S&P 500 due to rising Treasury yields and limited rate-cut expectations, gains in large-cap growth stocks and a modest rise in the Nasdaq Composite—boosted by Tesla—helped prevent deeper losses, while global markets saw declines.
- Tesla shares spiked 22% after a third-quarter earnings beat, driven by regulatory credits, FSD revenue, and strong battery sales, with the company projecting up to 30% vehicle growth next year amid plans for new affordable models by 2025.
- As the Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout, markets are pricing in a 95.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.5%-4.75%, with officials favouring gradual easing over a larger 50 basis point reduction.
- This week, earnings reports from major tech companies alongside key economic data, including GDP and employment figures, are anticipated to influence market sentiment and potentially shape upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages dipped slowly lower
- US and European bond were higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index strengthened.
- Gold futures rallied to another new record high.
- Oil futures stayed in consolidation mode, but slightly higher.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activity this week is the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data release this week is the US Employment Report on Friday. Some other releases of note are the EU CPI and US PCE on Thursday and the Global Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
Earnings Watch: The main US Q3 earnings this week are Alphabet (Google) on Tuesday, Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.
Daylight Savings Time: Daylight Savings Time ended in the UK, EU and other European countries this weekend, narrowing the time difference to the USA and US markets. US Daylight Savings Time ends this coming weekend.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 10/28/2024 | Nothing of note |
| 10/29/2024 | Japanese Unemployment; German Consumer Confidence; US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings |
| 10/30/2024 | German GDP, CPI and Employment Reports; EU GDP and Consumer Confidence; US PCE (QoQ), GDP and ADP Employment Change |
| 10/31/2024 | Japanese Retail Sales and Retail Trade; BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement; German Retail Sales; EU CPI and Unemployment; Canadian GDP; US PCE (MoM)(YoY) |
| 11/01/2024 | US, Canadian and Chinese Manufacturing PMI; US Employment Report |
| Date | Major Earnings Data |
| 10/28/2024 | Nothing of note |
| 10/29/2024 | Alphabet (Google); Visa; AMD; McDonald’s; Pfizer; Paypal |
| 10/30/2024 | Microsoft; Meta; Eli Lilly; AbbVie |
| 10/31/2024 | Apple; Amazon; Mastercard; Merck&Co; Linde PLC; Uber |
| 11/01/2024 | Exxon Mobil; Chevron |
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