• NFL touchdown props are now available for all 14 games of Week 10 in the NFL 
• I have done the tedious work of going through all the TD odds for every player this week, pulling out the best bets
• Check out the 11 players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 10 below

Sportsbooks have released NFL touchdown props for all 14 games in Week 10 of the 2024-25 NFL season. While NFL TD props are without a doubt the most popular prop to bet, according to any sportsbook you ask, betting them does require a fair amount of research. Knowing not everyone is as lucky as I am to work in the sports betting industry, I have done all the work required for betting TDs in Week 10, and am happy to share the 11 players I have found present the best value below!

Sadly, I went 4-7 last week, losing 0.79 units. (I replaced Brian Robinson with Austin Ekeler.) It was a frustrating one with Justin Jefferson going for 137 yards without a TD, Tank Dell being held TD-less in spite of his 126 yards, Ja’Marr Chase not catching any of Joe Burrow’s five TD passes, and Puka Nacua getting himself ejected in the second quarter. In other words, I liked the reads, just didn’t have much luck.

But here’s to getting back on the right track in Week 10! As usual, I am sticking with anytime TD props, not betting any first TD scorers.

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 10

I am risking a half-unit on each of the NFL touchdown picks above, except for David Montgomery, who is a full-unit bet. There is a chance I add more, or swap a player if they end up not playing, so be sure to follow me on Twitter/X to receive that update!

I have only covered NFL TD props in this article, but if you wanted more, you can go check out our NFL props page. It has all the passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders for every player, while also doing the line shopping for you on each bet!

If you want some justification for why I’m betting the 11 players above, keep reading below for my analysis on each.

Ja’Marr Chase

Yes, Ja’Marr Chase let me down last week, but I am someone who believes in second chances. I may not be so willing if he didn’t receive 11 targets last week. But the big factor here is that Chase is a Raven killer.

It was just a handful of weeks ago that Chase went for 193 yards and two touchdowns while catching ten of his 12 targets against Baltimore. He now has five touchdowns in seven games against the Ravens and is averaging 99.7 receiving yards per game against them. Among the teams he has played more than once in his career, Chase only averages more receiving yards per game against two teams. What’s even more impressive about that stat is that Baltimore’s defense has been one of the best in the league for two of those seasons (2022-2023), accounting for four of the seven games.

That’s not the case this season, though. Baltimore has given up the most passing yards per game and rank 27th in net yards allowed per pass attempt.

I am confident the Ravens are going to put up points of their own, forcing Cincinnati to remain aggressive all game. When the Bengals are forced to pass, Chase typically sees more targets. So, I like Chase to score a touchdown in Week 10!

• Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets or a First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000!

Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBDXLM

CODE: SBDXLM

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

OR GET UP TO $1,000 BACK

CLAIM OFFER

Malik Nabers

I know Tyrone Tracey may be the more popular pick to score a touchdown for the Giants this week, but I’m going with Malik Nabers.

New York plays the Panthers in Week 10, who have allowed more rushing yards than any other team in the league. However, they rank 20th in yards allowed per rushing attempt, while ranking dead-last in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Carolina is not great against the run, but they’re allowing so many yards on the ground because they have also faced the most rushing attempts – a result of their offense being horrible and teams sitting on big leads most of the game.

I don’t know if the Giants offense, who has scored the fewest points in the league, can workup a big enough lead in this game to find themselves playing with a positive game script for very long. So, I think they’ll have to continue putting the ball in the air, meaning Nabers is going to get his opportunities against an awful secondary.

Nabers has seen double-digit targets in five of seven games, with seven being the fewest he has seen in a game (coming in his first game of the season). The rookie has been held out of the endzone since Week 3, but he did miss two games due to a concussion as well. So, his touchdown-less streak has only reached four games now.

If he sees double-digit targets against the Panthers, which I think he will, he’s going to break one loose and get himself a touchdown.

• Pick: Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+135 at DraftKings)

James Cook

Another guy who let me down last week is getting a second chance. James Cook has scored a touchdown in five of eight games this season, and he now faces a Colts defense who has allowed the fourth-most total yards in the league.

While I do suspect Ray Davis to continue receiving some of the opportunities out of Buffalo’s backfield, Cook is still their guy. In a game against a Joe Flacco-led Colts offense, I like Buffalo to be playing with a lead for the majority of it. The result will be more touches for Cook than he saw against the Dolphins last week.

The biggest pull for me here is the price of Cook’s anytime touchdown odds. Some books had him as short as -155 when I wrote this. I think those odds are much closer to his actual probability of scoring a TD in this game, and just felt there is too much value in the -115 odds offered by FanDuel.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-115 at FanDuel)

Justin Jefferson

I apologize if you are sick of seeing me bet Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown. Admittedly, I’m getting sick of writing the same analysis over and over, especially when it has not cashed for me lately. Jefferson only has one touchdown in his last four games, but opened the season with a touchdown in four straight.

But it’s not like Jefferson is any less of the offense as he was early in the season. If we compare his first four games to his last four, we see that Jefferson was targeted 29 times in those first four versus 40 times in the last four he has played. His last four games also make up three of his top four games in receiving yards.

He has just had some bad touchdown luck. But if sportsbooks are going to keep offering Jefferson’s anytime TD odds at this price, I’m going to have to keep betting it, especially when he’s facing a Jaguars defense that is allowing the second-most net yards per pass attempt and the second-most passing touchdowns. Jefferson’s TD drought ends here.

• Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (-105 at DraftKings)

Darnell Mooney

I have been hammering Drake London to score touchdowns most of this year, and it has been paying off. He even managed to get one for me last week before leaving the game with an injury. But that same hip injury that forced London out of the game last week has resulted in him being a limited participant at practice so far this week.

With London’s status up in the air for Sunday, I’m going to jump on fellow Falcons receiver Darnell Mooney. The former Bear has been very involved in Atlanta’s offense in his first season with the team, as he has seen just two fewer targets than London, who is the team-leader in the category. Mooney has been the more explosive option of the two, though, averaging 14.3 yards per touch versus London’s 11.

Mooney has also scored five touchdowns this season, just one fewer than London. Mooney has a touchdown in each of his last two games, and may see an increased target share if London were to either miss the game or find himself limited.

I’m always a little hesitant to bet on/against a team who has just fired their coach, as we don’t know how they’ll respond. But New Orleans was already 25th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, and they just traded away Marshon Lattimore. I suspect their effort against the run to improve, which I think only results in Atlanta attacking through the air more.

I’m comfortable making this bet right now because I like the price on Mooney even if London does play. But if London is out, I suspect we’ll see Mooney’s anytime touchdown odds shorten closer to even-money.

• Pick: Darnell Mooney Anytime TD (+160 at BetMGM)

Kareem Hunt

I’m not sure why Caesars is offering this price on Kareem Hunt to score a touchdown. I think they’re giving the Broncos defense a little too much credit with this line. We just saw Derrick Henry rush for 106 yards and two touchdowns against this Denver defense last week.

I’m not saying Denver’s defense isn’t good, or even great, but I don’t think their offense is supporting them well enough. Baltimore had so much success against them last week, scoring 38 points in the first three quarters, because they didn’t allow Denver’s ability to pressure the QB to force them into mistakes and the Broncos offense wasn’t able to let their defense get much rest. I think we’ll see Patrick Mahomes play the same way this week.

I don’t think we see 41 points out of Kansas City this week, but I do suspect them to score a couple/few touchdowns. I also believe at least one of those touchdowns will be scored by Kareem Hunt. We have seen Hunt score at least one touchdown in each of his four games as Kansas City’s starting running back, and he has seen at least 21 carries in each of them. He totaled 28 touches in the Chiefs’ game against the Bucs last week, though it did require overtime to help him rack up some extra touches and his touchdown.

I don’t foresee Andy Reid wanting to get too cute in the red zone against this aggressive Broncos defense, instead opting for smash-mouth football with Hunt.

• Pick: Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (-129 at Caesars)

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Get Your First NFL Bet Back – Up To $1,000 On Caesars!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1000

CODE: SBD1000

NFL SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,000 BACK

CLAIM OFFER

George Pickens

George Pickens only has one touchdown this season, but he now has scored in 50% of the games played with Russell Wilson as his quarterback. (Yes, that’s only a sample size of two games.) Pickens also had two touchdowns called back in Pittsburgh’s last game against the Giants two weeks ago – one because of a penalty and the other because apparently tapping the same foot twice doesn’t count as two feet inbounds.

So, he was very close to having scored a touchdown in 100% of Wilson’s games. I like Pickens to make it two of three when the Steelers take on the Commanders in Week 10, though. Washington’s offense has been very good this season, and I suspect they’ll be able to solve this tough Steelers defense and put up some points.

I believe this will lead to Pittsburgh finding themselves playing from behind for a bit in this game, meaning Wilson will be putting the ball in the air and trying to attack vertically. I’m not sure there is a better jump-ball receiver in the league than Pickens.

On top of that, Washington ranks 21st in net yards allowed per pass attempt and have given up 14 passing touchdowns this season. I like Pickens to get his opportunities in this one, and trust him to come down with at least one of them.

• Pick: George Pickens Anytime TD (+200 at DraftKings)

Cade Otton

With it seeming likely that Mike Evans will miss another game, the Cade Otton experience will continue for at least another week. Since Chris Godwin and Mike Evans got hurt, Otton has seen double-digit targets in each game, which includes the game where those two went down.

The Bucs tight end has turned those extra opportunities into 100, 81, and 77-yard receiving performances, scoring at least one touchdown in two of three. He has totaled four touchdowns in his last four games as well. In Tampa Bay’s most recent game, which came against Kansas City, Otton’s 11 targets were good for a 35.5% target share from quarterback Baker Mayfield.

With the state of Tampa Bay’s defense, which has allowed the fifth-most yards and third-most points, their offense will be forced to play aggressive all game. Not to mention, San Francisco (their Week 10 opponent) only allows 4.3 yards per carry.

I like Otton to see plenty more targets in this one, and think he’ll convert another one into a touchdown.

• Pick: Cade Otton Anytime TD (+180 at FanDuel)

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts now has at least one rushing touchdown in five of eight games this season, including at least one in each of his last three games. But he has also totaled six rushing touchdown in those last three games.

Hurts is preparing to face the Cowboys, who have allowed 13 touchdowns on the ground this season, for the first time this year. Dallas will be starting Cooper Rush with Dak Prescott suffering an injury last week. I bring this up because I think it’s reasonable to expect Dallas’ aerial attack to take a step back with Rush starting his first game of the season.

The result will be Philadelphia not needing to be overly aggressive throughout the game, likely being able to just sit on the ball and run clock. That seems like a recipe for a Hurts TD.

• Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+110 at bet365)

David Montgomery

David Montgomery has not been his reliable self when it comes to producing touchdowns over the last few weeks. Montgomery has only scored a touchdown in one of his last three games after starting the season with at least one touchdown in five straight.

But I’m not losing any faith in Montgomery and it doesn’t appear Detroit is either. They gave him 17 carries last week, and he averaged 4.3 YPC with those attempts. But a pretty good Packers run defense, paired with some bad weather that made moving the ball a little tough, was able to hold him out of the endzone.

Montgomery will see a Texans defense that allows 4.7 YPC in Week 10, and the game will be played indoors, removing any weather concerns. Houston has only allowed five rushing touchdowns this season, but I think that’s more about the offenses they have played than it is about their run defense being anything special.

Also, in his 1.5 seasons with the Lions now, Montgomery has only been held out of the endzone in back-to-back games once. I’m betting Montgomery to keep it to just one set of back-to-back games without a touchdown on Sunday night.

• Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (-125 at bet365)

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets or a First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000!

Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBDXLM

CODE: SBDXLM

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

OR GET UP TO $1,000 BACK

CLAIM OFFER

De’Von Achane

No Miami Dolphin has benefitted more from Tua Tagovailoa’s return to the lineup than De’Von Achane. In four games without Tua, Achane was averaging 47.3 yards from scrimmage per game – though, he did leave one of those games early due to injury. Achane did not score a single touchdown in those four games.

In the four games he has played with Tagovailoa, Achane has recorded at least 100 yards from scrimmage and at least one touchdown in each of them. He recorded two touchdowns in Miami’s game against the Bills last week.

Achane now prepares to face a Rams defense that’s 22nd in points allowed and 24th in yards allowed. While LA does rank 11th in yards per carry allowed, I’m not concerned about them shutting Achane down, who has done just as much damage as a receiver as on the ground.

It’s also worth noting that Achane has scored five of Miami’s 12 total touchdowns this season. I like him to add at least one more on Monday night.

• Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-110 at bet365)

The post NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 10: Predictions for TD Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.