• The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers meet in the decisive Game 3 of their NL Wild Card series on Thursday
• The Brewers are slight home favorites to advance with Tobias Myers on the mound opposite Jose Quintana
• See the Mets vs Brewers predictions, picks, and best odds for Game 3 on Oct. 3rd

The Milwaukee Brewers (94-70, 48-35 home) and New York Mets (90-74, 44-39 away) meet in a winner-take-all Game 3 of their NL Wild Card series on Thursday night at 6:00 pm CT/7:00 pm ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee.

The Brewers staved off elimination last night with a 5-3 victory and are now slight favorites to complete the comeback. But the Mets have (recent) history on their side. Since the MLB adopted the 12-team playoff format in 2022, the team that wins Game 1 of the Wild Card series is a perfect 11-0.

Neither team is in great shape, pitching-wise, for Game 3. The Mets will turn to hittable veteran Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) while the Brewers hand the ball to rookie Tobias Myers (3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP).

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

• Mets moneyline (+110)
• Over 7.5 runs (+100)

For the third straight year, the Wild Card round has been very low scoring, on the whole. The 2024 teams have averaged just 6.0 runs per game, which is actually a slight increase from last season. But the Mets/Brewers series is the one that is bucking the trend. They combined for 12 runs in an 8-4 New York win in Game 1 and another eight runs in Milwaukee’s 5-3 victory in Game 2.

I also like the over because of the pitching matchup. On the Milwaukee side is promising-but-untested rookie Tobias Myers. He dominated the Mets in his only previous start against New York, giving up no runs and just one hit with five Ks over 4.0 innings on Sep. 28 in a 6-0 Milwaukee win. But this elimination game will be his first taste of playoff action and he’ll be facing a seasoned Mets lineup that should now have a better bead on him.

On the other side is soft-throwing veteran Jose Quintana. The current iteration of the Brewers has hammered the 35-year-old Colombian, with a .303 average and .903 OPS in 66 total at-bats. Quintana made two starts against Milwaukee in the regular season and, though he only gave up four runs in 9.0 innings, he had a concerning 1.667 WHIP. Quintana was on the wrong end of that 6-0 decision against Myers on Sep. 28.

One positive Mets fans can take from that outing is that he struck out a season-high nine batters in just 4.1 innings. And though he only has 18.2 postseason innings on his resume, his most-recent playoff performance was a good omen. He pitched 5.1 shutout innings for the Cardinals in 2022.

I don’t expect the Mets hurler to be perfect, far from it. But I do have slightly more confidence in Quintana’s experience heading into this high-pressure spot, which is why I’m taking both New York and the over in Thursday’s MLB odds.

Best Mets vs Brewers Odds for Game 3

The vast majority of sportsbooks list the moneyline odds at MIL -130/NYM +110. The only site that shows any variation is Caesars Sportsbook, which lists Milwaukee at -125 and New York at +105.

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Caesars also has the best price on the Brewers’ runline at -1.5 (+170). DraftKings is offering the best odds on the Mets +1.5 at -198.

All sportsbooks have the game total at 7.5 though there is some discrepancy in the odds. Bet365 and Caesars list over 7.5 at even money. FanDuel has the under at -114, which is the longest price bettors can find at the moment.

The other three Wild Card series all wrapped up in the minimum two games. The latest World Series odds heading into play on Thursday listed the Mets (+2200) and Brewers (+2000) with the longest odds to win the Fall Classic of the nine remaining teams.

The post New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks, Predictions & Odds for Game 3 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.