Hull KR vs Leeds Rhinos Predictions: 11/4 Lewis to send Rovers charging to semis

The Betfred Super League play-off picture will look a whole lot clearer on Friday night after Hull Kingston Rovers host Leeds Rhinos at Sewell Group Craven Park with both sides needing a season-closing win (kick-off 20:00 BST, Sky Sports+).

Rovers can clinch a semi-final spot with victory, while the Rhinos know that a win might not even be enough to finish in the six depending on what happens elsewhere. If my Hull KR vs Leeds Rhinos predictions are right, they’ll be left disappointed.

Hull KR vs Leeds Rhinos Odds

As the second-best team in the competition all season, Rovers are unsurprisingly priced as 1/6 favourites to end their regular campaign with another Craven Park win. Leeds are 9/2 to become only the third team in 2024 – after Warrington Wolves and Catalans Dragons – to beat KR on their own patch.

Those two home defeats for Rovers came by narrow points margins – two and one respectively – so if Leeds are to do it at all, it may come via extra-time. The 80-minute draw is 22/1 with Betfred.

Team News

Rovers have had to make a couple of changes, with the key one being the loss of captain and talisman Elliot Minchella to a two-match ban for a high shot in the commanding 24-0 win at Leigh Leopards last week.

That was also a fixture in which they lost their full-back Niall Evalds very early on in proceedings to a head knock, and he misses out here due to concussion protocols.

While Mikey Lewis dropped in to play in Evalds’ spot at LSV, it’s likely that Jack Broadbent will fill the role against Leeds, while Minchella’s slot at loose forward ought to go to Dean Hadley with Jai Whitbread returning to the front row after his own suspension.

There shouldn’t be too many other tweaks to a Rovers side Willie Peters has kept settled wherever possible in their current run of 10 games which has yielded nine victories.

Rugby League Odds

There just the one change for Leeds, with Brad Arthur recalling threequarter Luis Roberts and Mickael Goudemand missing out.

Leeds need to win at Craven Park and hope that St Helens beat Leigh Leopards for them to leap Adrian Lam’s side into the top six.

The Rhinos would only otherwise make it in the very unlikely event that Saints lose by a huge margin and Leeds themselves score massively to overturn a total points swing of 162.

Hull KR -16 & Mikey Lewis to score a try anytime @ 11/4

Minchella or no Minchella, Rovers have been exceptional this season. It is a bit of a quirk of fate that in two of the three games the club captain hasn’t started, they have lost. But that would be to over-simplify the issue.

I think they should have too much for Leeds by some distance. They have already beat the Rhinos twice (22-12 at Craven Park in Ferbuary and 20-12 at Headingley in July) and have been irrepressible of late save for that sin-bin-affected loss to Wigan Warriors.

Take out that loss at the Brick, and their last six wins have come at the concession of just 32 points, with only six tries conceded. Their clean sheet at Leigh last week was their fourth of the campaign, and in 29 matches in all competitions this season they have kept their opponents try-less in a 40-minute half 21 times.

Of late, Mikey Lewis has only got better. Their superstar half-back has scored 12 tries in 10 matches, only failing to cross in one of those games. And I don’t see him leaving empty-handed on Friday.

Betfred’s Price Boost gives us the chance to double-up on a three-score Rovers win and ‘Magic Mikey’ doing some damage.

Successful Drop Goal @ 5/2

It might seem strange to be backing a side going for a one-pointer in what ought to be a healthy home win, but Rovers need to get into the habit for the play-offs to come.

In their last 40 fixtures since Brad Schneider’s golden-point winner against Wigan in the 2023 Challenge Cup semi-final, KR have slotted just one drop-goal.

That game-winner by Jez Litten at Castleford Tigers in July was followed a week later by several misses as the Robins lost to Catalans Dragons in extra time, and it was notable last week that Lewis shaped up for a drop-goal attempt when his side led 24-0 in Leigh.

It is at this time of year that play-off-bound teams can tend to take the opportunity to get into the practice ahead of what should be tight, absorbing fixtures in the knockout phase. So don’t be surprised to see Litten or Lewis get themselves in the mood with a cheeky extra point late in the game.

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