Not a lot of movement from last week, but what there is has generally been in Trump’s favour. The debate might move the needle a bit more noticeably, but in what direction.
Changes from last week:
All four national polling figures move slightly towards Trump: 1.0% for Nate Silver, 0.5% for 538, 0.4% for RCP, and 0.2% for Princeton’s meta-margin.
In the Electoral College, 538 has Arizona moving from Harris to Trump, but still has Harris winning overall. RCP has Nevada moving from Tied to Harris, but Pennsylvania from Harris to Tied; resulting in the overall college moving from Harris to unclear. electoral-vote also moves from a Harris win to an unclear result, as they have Georgia and Pennsylvania moving from Harris to Tied. Princeton has moved the overall result from Harris to Trump, by the narrowest of margins.
No one has any changes in the Senate from last week.
James Doyle
