A historic pursuit

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback and first-overall pick Caleb Williams is looking to accomplish a feat no NFL player has since 1957: win the MVP in his first season.

win the league’s highest individual award

Williams, a former Heisman Trophy winner, has been likened to Patrick Mahomes and is one of the most revered prospects in the past decade. Although he has yet to step foot on an NFL field in regulation, bettors are already showing strong support for him to win the league’s highest individual award.

The Bears kick off their (pre)season against the Houston Texans on Thursday. Although Williams and the starters won’t participate, there’s still one question on the minds of Chicagoans and bettors nationwide: Will the young gunslinger succumb to the hype, or will he deal a fatal blow to historical precedent? 

Caleb Williams enters top five for NFL MVP

Fanatics sportsbooks tweeted last Wednesday that Caleb Williams was the fourth-most popular choice for NFL MVP by handle. The complete top five included:

• Patrick Mahomes – 17.1%
• C.J. Stroud – 14.5%
• Joe Burrow – 13.9%
• Caleb Williams – 8.9%
• Josh Allen – 8.3%

Williams also had the fifth-highest ticket percentage with a nearly equivalent 8.8%. The full top five included:

• C.J. Stroud – 12.9%
• Patrick Mahomes – 11.1%
• Joe Burrow – 10.7%
• Jared Goff – 10.3%
• Caleb Williams – 8.8%

The Bears’ new QB received so much early support that Fanatics dropped his odds to win MVP from +10000 to +7500. His odds shortened further since then, with most major sportsbooks placing him at +5000.

Williams is still the biggest longshot to win MVP among the bettors’ top contenders even after the recent reduction in value. Of the top five in tickets or handle, only Jared Goff (+2500) has worse than +1000 odds.

only rookie to win the award was Cleveland Browns fullback Jim Brown in 1957

No rookie quarterback has even won the MVP in NFL history. The only rookie to win the award was Cleveland Browns fullback Jim Brown in 1957, which was also the first year it was presented by the Associated Press.

While that precedent is working against Williams, the recent performances of quarterbacks in voting races are not. The last 11 MVP winners were quarterbacks, as were four of the top five finishers in last year’s voting.

Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud also earned himself a 9th place finish despite missing two games. Although that still put him well off the pace in the final tally, it put a foot in the door for future rookie QBs. 

Favorable circumstances

The Caleb Williams MVP hype is just that – hype – for the time being. That said, he’s in potentially the best situation for any rookie first-overall quarterback pick.

Williams heads to a Bears team that has an elite receiving trio headlined by D.J. Moore (96 receptions, 1,364 yards, eight touchdowns) and Keenan Allen (108 receptions, 1,243 yards, seven touchdowns). Rookie 9th overall pick Rome Odunze, who led the NCAA with 1,640 receiving yards last year, completes the three-man team.

He’ll also have strong support from his running backs, as both D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert have proven themselves as valuable contributors in the NFL. 

On top of that, Pro Football Focus ranked the Bears’ offensive line as the 11th-best in the league, and the defense allowed less than 18 points per game over the final two months of the season last year (which would’ve ranked third based on yearly averages).

The pieces are in place for Williams to find immediate success in the NFL. It’s on him to fulfill the expectations presented, starting with leading his team to the playoffs.

should be a near-lock to reach the postseason if Williams is as much of an upgrade

The Bears play in an NFC North division that, along with the AFC North, could be the toughest in the NFL. Chicago still went 7-10 last year with some of the worst quarterback play in the league and should be a near-lock to reach the postseason if Williams is as much of an upgrade as he’s made out to be. 

Williams and the Bears begin their regular-season campaign on Sunday, September 8 with a home bout against the Tennessee Titans. And while a franchise starved of postseason success will rejoice in any substantial progress, the young QB’s pursuit of the MVP award will be one of the biggest storylines of the season.

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