England vs Spain Prediction: Ruiz & co set to ruin Three Lions’ dreams

After a month of thrills and spills, it all comes down to Sunday for England and Spain, who meet in the Euro 2024 Final at the Olympiastadion in Berlin (20:00, BBC One/ITV1).

Spain are looking to be crowned European champions for the third time in the men’s competition, while England are looking to win their first-ever men’s European Championship. Is it coming home? I assess all that and more in my England vs Spain prediction, which you can check out down below.

Euro 2024 Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Euro 2024 page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

Team News

Marc Guehi returned from suspension against the Netherlands to reclaim his spot on the left of England’s back three alongside John Stones and Kyle Walker, and with the side looking settled, the only question mark appears to be over the head of Kieran Trippier, who has started all six of England’s games this summer at left-back or left wing-back.

However, the 33-year-old was hooked at half-time for Luke Shaw on Wednesday, and Gareth Southgate must now decide whether the Manchester United full-back should be given a first start since February 18.

Personally? I think Shaw starts to offer more solidity against Spain’s teenage sensation Lamine Yamal.

Spain are missing the injured Pedri, who was substituted in the early stages of their quarter-final victory over hosts Germany through injury, but will be boosted by the dual returns of defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand.

Carvajal is certain to return at right-back, but Le Normand may find it difficult to shift Nacho Fernandez after the 34-year-old’s superb showing against France on Tuesday.

La Roja’s midfield and attack is set in stone, unless captain Alvaro Morata suffered an injury from the freak collision with a security guard post-France celebrations.

England vs Spain Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main England vs Spain page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

It’s unlikely to be coming home according to Betfred, who have installed Spain as 6/4 favourites on Sunday, giving them an implied win probability of 40% in regulation time, while England’s odds of 12/5 give them a 29.4% chance.

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time, is available at 15/8, while both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes can be backed at 1/1 and 11/8 respectively.

Marc Cucurella to be carded @ 5/2

Chelsea left-back Marc Cucurella has faced his fair share of criticism since making the move from Brighton to Stamford Bridge in the summer of 2022, but he’s been busy in Germany restoring his reputation and has arguably been the best player in his position at Euro 2024.

In a team packed full of tricksters and visionaries, Cucurella hasn’t been shy in doing the dirty work, recording 2.4 tackles per game.

However, he is also averaging 1.2 fouls per game, showing that he can go over the top sometimes, and can possibly consider himself fortunate not to have been booked yet.

He faces one final test at the tournament, and it’s likely to be his toughest assignment yet up against Bukayo Saka, who has grown into the competition on England’s right-hand side.

Cucurella was booked in both of Chelsea’s games against Saka’s Arsenal last season, and those were two of 10 yellows he received in the Premier League.

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Bet Builder – Fabian Ruiz 2+ shots, Bukayo Saka 1+ fouls, Jude Bellingham 1+ fouls, England over 1.5 offsides @ 4/1

Ruiz is a man who needs little introduction.

The Paris Saint-Germain midfielder has enjoyed a sensational Euro 2024 campaign thus far and is in contention to win the Player of the Tournament Award.

The 28-year-old is averaging three shots per game and has had at least two in every match since recording just a single effort in Spain’s opener against Croatia. I backed him to have at least two shots in the quarter-final with Germany, and I think he’ll come up trumps once again on Sunday.

Next up we have Arsenal star Saka, who is averaging a foul per game at the tournament. He made two in the group stage, both against Slovenia, and has made one in each of England’s last two outings.

I’m expecting a terrific contest between him and Cucurella, who I have also backed to pick up a yellow card. But as much as Cucurella likes to make fouls, he’s even better at winning them, committing 1.2 fouls per game compared to 2.2 received at Euro 2024.

Saka’s teammate Jude Bellingham is also likely to be in the thick of the action up against a few of his Real Madrid teammates.

Like Saka, the 21-year-old is averaging a foul per game and made one against Switzerland and the Netherlands in the last 16 and quarter-finals respectively.

Meanwhile, England’s offside count has started to tot up. They were only caught offside three times in the group stage but were flagged as many times against Switzerland, and four times against the Netherlands.

Correct score – Spain 2-1 @ 9/1

My heart says England but, with a clear mind at the time of writing, my head says Spain take this in regulation time to stop it ‘coming home’.

England put in an improved showing against the Dutch but Spain represent a step up in class from them and the rest of the nations the Three Lions have faced at the tournament.

La Roja scored twice against France in the semi-finals and will back themselves to net another couple against a similarly stingy defence.

I see Spain going into an early lead and adding another in the second half before England attempt to mount another comeback, but I think it will be too little, too late for Southgate’s side.

Sunday: Build your own PickYourPunt bet (3/1+) of 4+ legs on The Euro 2024 Final and get 100% of your stake back in Free Bets if it loses. (Credited within 48 hours).

Sunday: Back a team to win the Euro 2024 Final in 90 minutes, and if they win by 2 clear goals we’ll double your odds, if they win by 3 goals we’ll treble them!

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You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.