Most of the things that make voters happy or sad, richer or poorer… well… governments have very little power over them. 

Be in power in a period of peace and prosperity, and the voters thank you and think you a genius (or at least mildly competent). Be there when the Global Financial Crisis comes around, or when Covid hits, or when commodity prices go spiraling up thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… well, they blame you.

Arnie said it best: “The people will always thank you for things you aren’t responsible for and hold you responsible for things you have nothing to do with. That’s the way it is.”

In the last year, we have seen elections in Spain, Portugal, Poland, India, Mexico, the Netherlands, Belgium, and the UK.

With the exception of Mexico, the incumbent party lost in every case. Spain and Portugal kicked out their ruling socialist parties. In Poland, the right wing PiS was evicted and replaced with the Civic Coalition. In India, Modi – long thought invincible – lost his majority. In the Netherlands, the ruling VVC lost a third of their seats and placed third in the poll.

The same happened in the developed world in the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. And following the 1970s oil crisis. Yep, the voters kicked governments out, whether they were good or bad, honest or crooks.

And that happened in the UK this week.

Voters in the UK got poorer in the last five years because wages didn’t keep up with inflation. (Something that is true in essentially every developed country in the last five years thanks to Covid and commodity prices.) This doesn’t mean concerns about immigration and small boat crossings didn’t make things worse, but the trend for incumbent governments is the same: if voters are poorer, then they vote to evict the incumbents.

I don’t think – absent a few countries where I am sceptical of the numbers (*cough* Russia *cough*) – there is any government elected before 2022 that has positive approval ratings right now. 

And that is why Donald Trump should be favorite in November. US voters have gotten poorer for exactly the same reasons that British, Indian, Japanese and French voters have. And that means the incumbent government gets the blame.

Robert