Kazakhstan vs San Marino Prediction: Hosts to make early pressure pay in pursuit of history

Kazakhstan still retain hope of reaching a first-ever major tournament, as they prepare to host perennial whipping-boys San Marino in Astana on Friday (15:00).

The Hawks are four points behind the top two in Group H, Slovenia and Denmark, but with the two countries meeting each other on matchday nine, Kazakhstan have the chance to move within two points of both, or one point of one, in the hunt for a ticket to Euro 2024.

San Marino are still dreaming of their first point in the group, but a goal against Denmark last time out should do wonders for their confidence heading into this one.

Team News

Kazakhstan were handed a cruel blow in the lead-up to their final round of fixtures, with the news that Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov is out after sustaining an injury for Turkish side Besiktas. Zaynutdinov is his country’s all-time top goalscorer and has scored four of their 12 goals so far in qualifying.

Captain Askhat Tagybergen is also out to deepen Kazakhstan’s woes.

Picking out the key men in the San Marino squad is slightly more difficult, but they appear to have no notable absentees from October’s internationals.

Match Odds

As expected, there’s no value in the Kazakhstan win at 1/28, with the draw at 12/1. For those anticipating the end of the world as we know it, it’s 50/1 for San Marino to win a first-ever qualifier.

16 of San Marino’s last 20 European Championship qualifiers have had three or more goals, and it’s 4/11 for over 2.5 on Friday.

Kazakhstan half-time handicap -1.0 @ 5/4

The hosts have enjoyed a sensational campaign so far, winning five of their first eight games, and they know a win here will ramp up the pressure on the top-two.

They couldn’t pick better opponents to face, with San Marino listed by FIFA as the lowest-ranked nation in Europe. Despite a gritty showing in a 2-1 defeat to Denmark last month, San Marino are routinely battered on the European stage, and that should be the case again on Friday, despite Kazakhstan missing a couple of their star men.

San Marino have been at least two goals behind at half-time in four of their last five games, including their last three away. In front of their fans for the final time this year, I expect Kazakhstan to attack from the off, with the aim of rattling a few in before ringing the changes in the second-half in order to rest players for Monday’s showdown in Slovenia.

First goal time, 1-10 mins @ 12/5

With the first bet in mind, Kazakhstan to score inside the first 10 minutes offers some value at 12/5.

San Marino have conceded during that period in two of their last three games. Those two matches – against Northern Ireland and Slovenia – saw them concede further goals in the next 10-minute period (in the 11th-minute against Northern Ireland and in the 16th-minute against Slovenia), so they are certainly susceptible in the early stages.

As previously mentioned, Kazakhstan will be looking to get this won as quickly as possible, and that should see them take the game to the visitors immediately.

Find more of our Euro 2024 tips here.