A snippet from Deutsche Bank previewing the nonfarm payroll report due at 8.30 am US Eastern time on Friday, 7 July 2023.

With
the headline number ranging from +217k to +472k over the last 6 months,
these are not currently close to recessionary levels.

• However, the average
  recession through history has seen payrolls move from an average of
  just over +100k in the 3-6 months before to very suddenly negative in
  the first month of the recession where it tends to stay for several
  months. You don’t tend to get any warning from prior
  payroll prints that its going to turn negative but with the range this
  year, and last month being at +339k, we probably need to move down into
  the 100-200k range before we can be on more near-term recession watch.
  Even then it still might not happen but that’s probably a necessary
  condition outside of a shock.

For Friday, our
economists expect headline (consensus +225k, DB +200k vs. +339k
previously) and private (consensus +200k, DB +175k vs. +283k) payroll
gains to slow relative to their three-month averages of +283k and +231k,
respectively.

• This should still edge unemployment back
  down a tenth to 3.7% (consensus 3.6%) after a surprise spike last month.
• Hours worked was weak last month and our economists expect that to
  bounce from 34.3 to 34.4hrs.
• Hourly earnings are expected to be steady
  at 0.3%.

• This
  snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access
  it here.
• The
  times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The
  numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous
  month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
  next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median
  expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.